101 / 2019-10-29 11:16:24

Effects of Meteorological Factors on the incidence of Mumps and Models for Prediction, China

Mumps; Meteorological factors; ARIMA; ARIMAX; Prediction effect

B. 公共卫生相关主题 > Track - B 默认专题

Mumps is an acute respiratory infectious diseases with obvious regional and seasonal differences. Exploring the impact of climate factors on the incidence of mumps and predicting its incidence trend on this basis could effectively control the outbreak and epidemic of mumps. Due to the vast territory of China and the great difference of climate in different regions, this study divided the Chinese mainland into seven regions according to the administrative planning criteria, data of Mumps were collected from the “China Disease Prevention and Control Information System”, ARIMA model and ARIMAX model with meteorological factors were established to predicte the incidence of mumps. In this study, we found that precipitation, air pressure, temperature had an impact on the incidence of mumps in most regions of China and the incidence of mumps in south, central, west of China were more susceptible to climate factors. Considering meteorological factors, the average relative error of ARIMAX model was 10.64%, which was lower than ARIMA model (15.57%), ARIMAX model could better simulate and predict the incidence of mumps in China, which has a certain reference value for the prevention and control of mumps.