133 / 2019-11-05 14:14:09

Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xi’an: a modelling study

Transmissibility,pathogens,hand,foot,and mouth disease,model

Objectives: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely and led to high disease burden in many countries, but the interaction among the pathogens of the disease remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to analyze the interaction of the main pathogens of HFMD using a mathematical model.
Design: A dataset on reported HFMD cases was collected in Xi’an City. A long-term etiological surveillance was conducted focusing on the pathogens of the disease including Enterovirus A71 (EV71), Coxsachievirus A16 (CoxA16), and other enteroviruses.
A susceptible–infectious–recovered model was adopted to calculate the reproduction number during the ascending period of reported cases (defined as Rasc) and the descending period (defined as Rdes).
Results: In Xi’an, Rasc and Rdes of HFMD was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.31 – 1.48) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.65 – 0.74), respectively. CoxA16 and other enteroviruses interacted with each other and decreased the value of Rasc. However, Rdes of CoxA16 was increased by other enteroviruses directionally.However, during the reported cases decreasing period, interactions only occurred between EV71 and other enteroviruses and between CoxA16 and other enteroviruses. These interactions all decreased Rasc but increased Rdes of affected pathogens.
Conclusions: The interaction of the pathogens exists in Xi’an City. The reproduction number of the affected pathogen is adjusted and verges to 1 by the interaction.