摘要详情
86 / 2019-09-15 17:09:24
The transmissibility of hepatitis C virus: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China
Hepatitis C；Mathematical model; Transmissibility; Trend
摘要录用
Background: The spread of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major public health problem in the world and has been recommended to be eliminated in 2030 by the World Health Organization. However, the transmissibility of HCV remains unclear in China. This paper aims to use a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility of HCV and to predict the feasibility of elimination of the virus in 2030 in city-level in China.
Methods: The data of hepatitis C were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2018. A population-mixed Susceptible-Infectious-Chronic-Recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and thus the parameters of the model were calculated. Two indicators, R0 (the basic reproduction number) and MNI (the number of newly transmitted cases per month by a primary case), were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of HCV. The 11 curve estimation models (Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power, S, Growth, Exponential, and Logistic) were further employed to fit the values of the transmissibility. And finally, the best fitted model was employed to predict the trends of R0 and MNI in the city. The determination coefficient (R2) was adopted to test the goodness of fit.
Results: From 2004 to 2018, Xiamen City reported 2888 HCV cases, including 224 acute cases (7.76%), 1524 chronic cases (52.8%), and 1140 non-classified cases (39.5%). There were 1703 male cases (59.0%) and 1185 (41.0%) female cases. A decreasing trend of duration from onset to diagnosis was observed from 2004 to 2018. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The diversity of R0 and MNI was observed in six districts in the city. The median R0 of each district in Xiamen is 0.19 (range: 0.04 – 4.31). R0 follows the Logarithmic model of "R0 = 0.039714×" "e" ^"0.346086x" where x refers to time (year) from 2004 to 2014, and follows the Linear model of "R" _"0" "=-1.445764+5.502975/x" from 2014 to 2018. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0081 (0.0001-0.0411). MNI follows the Quadratic model of "MNI=0.022391-0.009133x+0.001385" "x" ^"2" from 2004 to 2011, and follows the Quadratic model of "MNI=0.022391-0.009133x+0.001385" "x" ^"2" from 2011 to 2018.
Conclusion: The SICR model can well fit the reported incidence of hepatitis C in Xiamen City, China. The incidence and spread of HCV in the city increased first and then decreased. The transmissibility of HCV would be in a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy of prevention and control, there would be high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.
Methods: The data of hepatitis C were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2018. A population-mixed Susceptible-Infectious-Chronic-Recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and thus the parameters of the model were calculated. Two indicators, R0 (the basic reproduction number) and MNI (the number of newly transmitted cases per month by a primary case), were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of HCV. The 11 curve estimation models (Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power, S, Growth, Exponential, and Logistic) were further employed to fit the values of the transmissibility. And finally, the best fitted model was employed to predict the trends of R0 and MNI in the city. The determination coefficient (R2) was adopted to test the goodness of fit.
Results: From 2004 to 2018, Xiamen City reported 2888 HCV cases, including 224 acute cases (7.76%), 1524 chronic cases (52.8%), and 1140 non-classified cases (39.5%). There were 1703 male cases (59.0%) and 1185 (41.0%) female cases. A decreasing trend of duration from onset to diagnosis was observed from 2004 to 2018. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The diversity of R0 and MNI was observed in six districts in the city. The median R0 of each district in Xiamen is 0.19 (range: 0.04 – 4.31). R0 follows the Logarithmic model of "R0 = 0.039714×" "e" ^"0.346086x" where x refers to time (year) from 2004 to 2014, and follows the Linear model of "R" _"0" "=-1.445764+5.502975/x" from 2014 to 2018. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0081 (0.0001-0.0411). MNI follows the Quadratic model of "MNI=0.022391-0.009133x+0.001385" "x" ^"2" from 2004 to 2011, and follows the Quadratic model of "MNI=0.022391-0.009133x+0.001385" "x" ^"2" from 2011 to 2018.
Conclusion: The SICR model can well fit the reported incidence of hepatitis C in Xiamen City, China. The incidence and spread of HCV in the city increased first and then decreased. The transmissibility of HCV would be in a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy of prevention and control, there would be high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.
重要日期
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会议日期
12月20日
2019
至12月22日
2019
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11月15日 2019
初稿录用通知日期
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12月22日 2019
初稿截稿日期
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12月22日 2019
注册截止日期
承办单位
湘雅公共卫生学院
联系方式
- Dr. Dai
- gi******@giph.pub
