摘要详情
1214 / 2024-09-20 17:11:46
Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems
complex systems,critical transitions,Early warning signals,the relaxation time
摘要录用
Avalanches are sudden, destructive, and extremely difficult to forecast natural disasters that can result in numerous fatalities and extensive property damage. Given the immense danger posed by avalanches, there is a significant amount of attention paid to accurately predicting these events. We investigate the predictability of large avalanches in a class of self-organizing systems, which change their internal structure or function in response to external circumstances by manipulating or organizing other elements of the same system. Here, we propose a practical relaxation time to replace a traditional recovery time, and importantly, the relaxation time does not require the removal of part of the resources (perturb state variables) in the environment. This work provides examples of the forest fire model and sandpile model as self-organizing systems in which the relaxation time successfully predicts the onset of large avalanches. Furthermore, the relaxation time can show a consistent with the increasing trend in both oscillatory and non-oscillatory bifurcations, suggesting that the relaxation time is more universal than traditional indirect metrics such as the variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function. We aim to identify early warning signals before the onset of large avalanches and provide scientific evidence and significant information for managers to formulate mitigation countermeasures and strategic decisions.
重要日期
-
会议日期
01月14日
2025
至01月17日
2025
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09月27日 2024
初稿截稿日期
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12月14日 2024
注册截止日期
主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
联系方式
- JKejing GU
- xm******@xmu.edu.cn
- +86*********
