1243 / 2024-09-20 19:37:17

The advances in Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP)

Pliocene,PlioMIP,advance

The warm Pliocene epoch, as an analogue for future climate scenarios, holds crucial insights for understanding climate change. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), which has been in operation for many years, has made great progress in revealing the climatic characteristics of this period. In contrast to the present day, during the late Pliocene warm period, PlioMIP1 simulations project a global average warming of 2-3°C, while PlioMIP2 simulations project a global average warming of 2-5°C. It is important to note that the atmospheric circulation underwent substantial adjustment during this period, as the Hadley circulation and westerly winds weakened and shifted towards the poles, a response linked to the reduced meridional temperature gradient resulting from significant warming at mid- to high-latitudes. The Walker circulation also weakened during the late Pliocene warm period, associated with a reduction in the meridional temperature gradient in the tropics. Significant changes in the hydrological cycle also occurred during this warm period, with increased precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and an expansion of the monsoon zone towards the poles, strengthening the East Asian summer monsoon and weakening the East Asian winter monsoon. Tropical cyclones intensify, persist for longer periods of time, and shift to higher latitudes. Recent studies have suggested that the closure of the Central American Seaway and the Indonesian Seaway during the late Pliocene led to increased drought in northeastern Brazil and eastern Africa, shaping the current pattern of drought in these regions. This suggests that as sea levels continue to rise in the future, the reopening of the Central American Seaway and the Indonesian Seaway could potentially alleviate the current arid conditions in northeastern Brazil and eastern Africa.​