198 / 2024-09-11 11:06:01
Exploring the externally forced sea-level signal and natural variability in the Pacific Ocean during the altimeter-era
external forcing, natural variability, altimeter-era
摘要录用
ruhui huang / Xiamen University
Xuebin Zhang / CSIRO Environment
John Church / University of New South Wales
Jianyu HU / Xiamen University
It remains unclear whether the regional sea-level trends observed during the altimeter-era (since 1993) are primarily driven by natural variability or external forcing. Utilizing altimeter measurements, this study develops an Empirical Orthogonal Function re-projection method to separate the externally forced signal from natural variability in the Pacific Ocean. By removing major natural variability, a more robust estimate of the forced sea-level trend is revealed, diverging notably from observed linear trends during the altimeter era. Present-day sea-level trends remain predominantly governed by natural variability, with trends reversing over decades in the tropical Pacific, and do not reflect persistent patterns driven by external forcing. Analysis from Ocean Reanalysis System 5 suggests that when using a 50-year timescale, more than half of the Pacific Ocean is expected to experience forced sea-level rise emergence. These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing the aliasing effect of low-frequency sea-level variability for accurate assessments of the forced sea-level rise emergence in the Pacific Ocean.
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月14日

    2025

    01月17日

    2025

  • 09月27日 2024

    初稿截稿日期

  • 12月14日 2024

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
联系方式
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询