The relative roles of external forcing and internal variability on Arctic sea ice changes on decadal timescales
编号:1416 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2024-10-14 16:50:48 浏览:44次 口头报告

报告开始:2025年01月16日 08:45(Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:15min

所在会场:[S20] Session 20-Decadal Climate Variability: Key Processes of Air-Sea Interaction, Mechanisms and Predictability [S20-2] Decadal Climate Variability: Key Processes of Air-Sea Interaction, Mechanisms and Predictability

暂无文件

摘要
The relative contribution of external forcing and internal climate variability to Arctic sea ice changes remains a controversial topic. To account for the bias of climate models in estimating the externally forced signal, we use two large ensemble simulations combined with optimal fingerprint method and find that previous approaches might overestimate the real impact of internal variability on Arctic sea ice change especially on lont time sclaes. Our results indicate that in both March and September, internal variability plays a dominant role on all time sclaes over the 20th century, while the anthropogenic signal on sea ice chage can be steadily and consistently detected on a timescale of more than 20 year after 2000s. We alos find that the pattern of internal variability in September is highly nonuniform over Arctic and varies across different timescales, indicating that sea ice internal variability in September at differernt timescales is driven by differernt factos. The local and remote factors on sea ice decadal variability also needs to be further discussed. 
关键词
Arctic sea ice; Decadal variability; Large ensembles; Internal variability
报告人
ZILI SHEN
Postdoctor Fudan University

稿件作者
ZILI SHEN Fudan University
发表评论
验证码 看不清楚,更换一张
全部评论
重要日期
  • 会议日期

    01月14日

    2025

    01月17日

    2025

  • 09月27日 2024

    初稿截稿日期

  • 12月14日 2024

    注册截止日期

主办单位
State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Xiamen University
联系方式
移动端
在手机上打开
小程序
打开微信小程序
客服
扫码或点此咨询