Seasonal-Varing Predictability of Global Heat Extremes from Oceanic Precursors: A Complex Network Analysis
编号:29 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2025-10-30 16:23:28 浏览:21次 口头报告

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摘要
While sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are known drivers of terrestrial heat extremes, their impacts across seasons, ocean basins, and lead times lack a unified quantitative understanding. Here, we apply complex network theory to systematically map the spatiotemporal pathways linking global SSTAs to extreme terrestrial heat. We show that the dominant ocean basins driving heat extremes vary seasonally, with signal flow analysis revealing distinct propagation pathways. The persistence of SSTA influences exhibits clear basin dependence: the Indian Ocean exerts the most rapid impact, followed by the Pacific and Atlantic. Notably, robust teleconnections are detectable over 90% of land areas even at 12-month lead times, exposing a substantial source of long-term predictability that conventional numerical models overlook. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models demonstrate skillful simulation of the lag-dependent evolution of these teleconnections, with a clear inter-model relationship showing that greater decadal variance in simulated ocean basins corresponds to higher numbers of network links. This network-based framework provides a novel approach for elucidating ocean-to-land interactions, offering critical insights that extend predictability beyond the limits of conventional numerical models.
关键词
Complex Network, Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, Extreme Terrestrial Heat
报告人
Huayan Qiu
Student Sun Yat-sen University

稿件作者
Huayan Qiu Sun Yat-sen University
Tuantuan Zhang School of Atmospheric Sciences; Sun Yat-sen University
Fenying Cai Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    11月20日

    2025

    11月24日

    2025

  • 11月10日 2025

    初稿截稿日期

  • 11月24日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
太平洋科学协会
承办单位
Shantou University
Xiamen University
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