Unprecedented recent summer warming and cross-sphere hydrological coupling in Asian Water Towers
编号:30 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2025-10-30 16:23:43 浏览:11次 口头报告

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摘要
The Asian Water Towers play a crucial role by storing and releasing vast amounts of freshwater, thereby sustaining the base flow of major Asian rivers and water security for billions of people at subcontinent to hemispheric scales. Instrumental records, though spatially and temporally limited, indicate rapid warming in High Asia. However, the sensitivity and long-term resilience of these Water Towers remain uncertain. Here, we use an 814-year-long tree-ring record (including tree-ring width and maximum latewood density) from Picea likiangensis on the eastern Tibetan Plateau to develop a summer (June-September) temperature reconstruction. Our reconstruction reveals that the series has warmed by 1.5 °C during the modern observational period (1970–2023), which is 0.5 ± 0.4 °C above the pre-industrial baseline (1210–1850 or 1850-1900), making the summer of 2024 the warmest in the past eight centuries. This unprecedented warming amplifies winter runoff in the Brahmaputra, Indus, and Salween headwaters through a cascade of atmosphere-cryosphere feedbacks: enhanced meltwater and spring soil-moisture persistence promote earlier and lusher vegetation growth, which reduces summer albedo and further accelerates regional warming. Detection and attribution analyses identify volcanic and solar forcing as the main drivers of natural, pre-industrial variability before 1850 CE, whereas anthropogenic forcing is detected with high confidence (exceeding the 99% confidence level) after 2020 CE.
关键词
Tree rings,recent summer warming,Asian Water Towers,temperature reconstruction
报告人
Feng Chen
Dr Yunnan University

稿件作者
Feng Chen Yunnan University
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重要日期
  • 会议日期

    11月20日

    2025

    11月24日

    2025

  • 11月10日 2025

    初稿截稿日期

  • 11月24日 2025

    注册截止日期

主办单位
太平洋科学协会
承办单位
Shantou University
Xiamen University
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