Global agricultural trade has emerged as a pivotal force reconfiguring the planetary Water-Food Nexus, simultaneously driving resource efficiency and environmental trade-offs. We integrated two decades of research (2000–2020) across 221 countries and regions, employing metacoupling frameworks to quantify virtual water and nutrient (nitrogen/N and phosphorus/P) flows embedded in agri-food trade networks. Our findings reveal profound spatial reallocation of resources with cascading sustainability implications.

Agri-food trade functions as a global water-saving mechanism, conserving up to 42.7 billion m³ annually through the strategic transfer of production to high water-efficiency regions. Cereal exports—particularly wheat and maize from water-abundant nations like France and Argentina—contributed over 50% of these savings, significantly alleviating water stress in 70% of importing countries, notably arid regions in Africa and West Asia. However, nearly half of all trade routes by 2020 exhibited inefficient water use, concentrated in legumes and nuts exported from water-stressed regions (e.g., Indonesia’s palm oil to the Philippines). These routes not only wasted virtual water but exacerbated local scarcity, highlighting a critical misalignment between trade patterns and hydrological sustainability.

The physical movement of N and P through traded crops and livestock surged 2.8-fold, dominated by exports from the Americas (76% of global flows). While this redistribution supplemented nutrient-poor soils in importing regions—reducing Africa’s phosphorus deficit by 0.38 Tg in 2016—it simultaneously transferred hidden environmental burdens. Virtual nutrient flows, representing 34% of global agricultural inputs, embedded massive upstream impacts: every ton of U.S. soybeans exported to China carried 62 kg of virtual N pollution from fertilizer runoff, accumulating to 62.3 Tg of nitrogen pollution burden in sending systems. Brazil’s soybean boom further illustrates this duality—economic gains were offset by tropical deforestation and soil P depletion, threatening long-term agricultural resilience.

The telecoupled nature of trade demands integrated policy innovation. High-efficiency corridors (e.g., Brazil-China soybeans) demonstrate the Nexus potential to concurrently: Reduce water stress through virtual water savings, Rebalance nutrient deficits in food-insecure regions, Minimize pollution leakage via optimized production locales.

Conversely, redirecting inefficient flows (e.g., shifting EU meat imports to regions with advanced manure recycling) could cut resource waste by 30%. We advocate for: Trade policies incorporating water-nutrient efficiency indices to prioritize routes from low-impact regions. And it should embed water/nutrient footprints in bilateral trade agreements to internalize environmental costs.

Conclusion
Reconciling trade’s dual role as both catalyst of efficiency and driver of environmental risk requires systemic governance. By aligning trade geographies with ecological carrying capacities and advancing circular resource models, the Water-Food Nexus can transform from a framework of trade-offs to a platform for sustainable globalization—directly advancing SDGs 2 (Zero Hunger), 6 (Clean Water), and 12 (Responsible Consumption).