Agro-Meteorological Impacts and Risk Assessment of the Northeast Cold Vortex
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更新:2025-10-31 21:09:57
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摘要
The Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) exerts a lasting impact on local weather. While how does it affect rainfed agriculture in Northeast China? In this study, we analyzed agro-meteorological disasters associated with the NECV during 1981–2021, integrating long-term meteorological, agricultural, and disaster records across the three northeastern provinces of China. Based on the characteristics of the NECV, a historical database of summer NECV-induced agricultural disasters was established. Following this, the relationships between NECV activity and major crop (maize and rice) disasters were examined. NECVs with distinct trajectories exhibit substantial differences in the magnitude and spatial extent of their temperature and precipitation impacts, reflecting the heterogeneous nature of cold vortex–induced climatic effects across Northeast China. And the cold vortex index derived from 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies exhibited strong correlations with temperature, precipitation, providing a robust diagnostic and predictive indicator of key NECV pathways and the potential disaster. In years with frequent occurrences of the NECV, combined effects of chilling injury and waterlogging led to significant yield reductions in maize. The impacts are particularly pronounced in western Heilongjiang and the central–northern regions of Jilin and Liaoning provinces. Furthermore, by incorporating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components, a comprehensive risk assessment framework was developed to evaluate NECV-induced chilling risks—specifically, sterile-type chilling during the booting and heading stages of rice, and delayed-type chilling affecting maize and rice. The results provide a scientific foundation and methodological framework for improving regional agricultural risk assessment, early warning, and disaster mitigation under the influence of the NECV.
关键词
Northeast Cold Vortex;agro-meteorological disasters;crop yield variability
稿件作者
Siwen Zhao
Nanjing University;The Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang
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